Road safety in urban sustainable cycling tourism. An application of the Protection Motivation Theory

Urban cycling tourism represents a cornerstone of sustainable mobility strategies aimed at reducing motorised travel and improving environmental and social well-being in cities. However, despite the crucial role of safety in encouraging cycling uptake, research has seldom examined how urban bike tourists adjust their behaviour to mitigate risk and cope with perceived road unsafety. Likewise, the influence of information on cycling accidents and risk perception on the intention to engage in urban cycling tourism remains largely overlooked in the literature. This study advances knowledge in this field by analysing data from an Italian online survey of city cyclists, adopting the Protection Motivation Theory (PMT) and a two-step empirical approach. First, an ordered probit model investigates how socio-demographic and travel-related characteristics shape the use of information sources and perceptions of road safety among cyclists. Second, after validating PMT constructs and identifying latent dimensions through confirmatory and exploratory factor analysis, a structural equation model estimates the effects of information sources on health-protective intentions and behaviours relevant for sustainable cycling mobility. Results show that information on risks exerts both direct and indirect effects, mediated by PMT constructs, on the intention to avoid urban bike tourism. The findings offer insights for policy interventions aimed at enhancing perceived and actual safety, thereby supporting a modal shift toward more sustainable urban travel choices.