Assessing Alpine Galliforms (Aves: Galliformes) vulnerability: modelling population trends and threats.

This research focused on the evaluation of Italian population trends and conservation threats of three Alpine Galliforms of conservation interest, Black grouse (Lyrurus tetrix), Alpine Rock ptarmigan (Lagopus muta helvetica) and Alpine Rock partridge (Alectoris graeca saxatilis). I performed a first-ever assessment of a medium term trend of the three species, exploiting all available data on annual counts and game bags, both as individual proxies and in an integrated fashion. According to the results, the current IUCN conservation statuses of the Italian populations seem appropriate. The integration of counts and bags helped improving estimates precision and reducing bias. Subsequently, I showed that intensive land abandonment has detrimental effects on Black grouse habitat suitability. The comparison of past and present land cover revealed a massive habitat suitability loss in Central Alps from the early 1980s, chiefly in the outer Alps and in wood pastures. Finally, I showed that marginal Rock ptarmigan populations living may display lower ecological plasticity in the use of habitat with respect to core populations and may not be able to adapt its behaviour to compensate for an increase in temperatures in the future. The project highlighted the need for a national survey scheme to plan robust conservation strategies and recommended the implementation of habitat management measures to directly or indirectly contrast the negative effects of global change.