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Background: The health risks associated with moderate alcohol consumption continue to be debated. Small amounts of alcohol might lower the risk of some health outcomes but increase the risk of others, suggesting that the overall risk depends, in part, on background disease rates, which vary by region, age, sex, and year. Methods: For this analysis, we constructed burden-weighted dose–response relative risk curves across 22 health outcomes to estimate the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL) and non-drinker equivalence (NDE), the consumption level at which the health risk is equivalent to that of a non-drinker, using disease rates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2020 for 21 regions, including 204 countries and territories, by 5-year age group, sex, and year for individuals aged 15–95 years and older from 1990 to 2020. Based on the NDE, we quantified the population consuming harmful amounts of alcohol. Findings: The burden-weighted relative risk curves for alcohol use varied by region and age. Among individuals aged 15–39 years in 2020, the TMREL varied between 0 (95% uncertainty interval 0–0) and 0·603 (0·400–1·00) standard drinks per day, and the NDE varied between 0·002 (0–0) and 1·75 (0·698–4·30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals aged 40 years and older, the burden-weighted relative risk curve was J-shaped for all regions, with a 2020 TMREL that ranged from 0·114 (0–0·403) to 1·87 (0·500–3·30) standard drinks per day and an NDE that ranged between 0·193 (0–0·900) and 6·94 (3·40–8·30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals consuming harmful amounts of alcohol in 2020, 59·1% (54·3–65·4) were aged 15–39 years and 76·9% (73·0–81·3) were male. Interpretation: There is strong evidence to support recommendations on alcohol consumption varying by age and location. Stronger interventions, particularly those tailored towards younger individuals, are needed to reduce the substantial global health loss attributable to alcohol. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Population-level risks of alcohol consumption by amount, geography, age, sex, and year: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2020
Bryazka D.;Reitsma M. B.;Griswold M. G.;Abate K. H.;Abbafati C.;Abbasi-Kangevari M.;Abbasi-Kangevari Z.;Abdoli A.;Abdollahi M.;Abdullah A. Y. Md.;Abhilash E. S.;Abu-Gharbieh E.;Acuna J. M.;Addolorato G.;Adebayo O. M.;Adekanmbi V.;Adhikari K.;Adhikari S.;Adnani Q. E. S.;Afzal S.;Agegnehu W. Y.;Aggarwal M.;Ahinkorah B. O.;Ahmad A. R.;Ahmad S.;Ahmad T.;Ahmadi A.;Ahmadi S.;Ahmed H.;Ahmed Rashid T.;Akunna C. J.;Al Hamad H.;Alam Md. Z.;Alem D. T.;Alene K. A.;Alimohamadi Y.;Alizadeh A.;Allel K.;Alonso J.;Alvand S.;Alvis-Guzman N.;Amare F.;Ameyaw E. K.;Amiri S.;Ancuceanu R.;Anderson J. A.;Andrei C. L.;Andrei T.;Arabloo J.;Arshad M.;Artamonov A. A.;Aryan Z.;Asaad M.;Asemahagn M. A.;Astell-Burt T.;Athari S. S.;Atnafu D. D.;Atorkey P.;Atreya A.;Ausloos F.;Ausloos M.;Ayano G.;Ayanore M. A.;Ayinde O. O.;Ayuso-Mateos J. L.;Azadnajafabad S.;Azanaw M. M.;Azangou-Khyavy M.;Azari Jafari A.;Azzam A. Y.;Badiye A. D.;Bagheri N.;Bagherieh S.;Bairwa M.;Bakkannavar S. M.;Bakshi R. K.;Bilchut A. H. B.;Barnighausen T. W.;Barra F.;Barrow A.;Baskaran P.;Belo L.;Bennett D. A.;Bensenor I. M.;Bhagavathula A. S.;Bhala N.;Bhalla A.;Bhardwaj N.;Bhardwaj P.;Bhaskar S.;Bhattacharyya K.;Bhojaraja V. S.;Bintoro B. S.;Blokhina E. A.;Bodicha B. B. A.;Boloor A.;Bosetti C.;Braithwaite D.;Brenner H.;Briko N. I.;Brunoni A. R.;Butt Z. A.;Cao C.;Cao Y.;Cardenas R.;Carvalho A. F.;Carvalho M.;Castaldelli-Maia J. M.;Castelpietra G.;Castro-De-Araujo L. F. S.;Cattaruzza M. S.;Chakraborty P. A.;Charan J.;Chattu V. K.;Chaurasia A.;Cherbuin N.;Chu D. -T.;Chudal N.;Chung S. -C.;Churko C.;Ciobanu L. G.;Cirillo M.;Claro R. M.;Costanzo S.;Cowden R. G.;Criqui M. H.;Cruz-Martins N.;Culbreth G. T.;Dachew B. A.;Dadras O.;Dai X.;Damiani G.;Dandona L.;Dandona R.;Daniel B. D.;Danielewicz A.;Darega Gela J.;Davletov K.;de Araujo J. A. P.;De Sa A. R.;Debela S. A.;Dehghan A.;Demetriades A. K.;Derbew Molla M.;Desai R.;Desta A. A.;Dias da Silva D.;Diaz D.;Digesa L. E.;Diress M.;Dodangeh M.;Dongarwar D.;Dorostkar F.;Dsouza H. L.;Duko B.;Duncan B. B.;Edvardsson K.;Ekholuenetale M.;Elgar F. J.;Elhadi M.;Elmonem M. A.;Endries A. Y.;Eskandarieh S.;Etemadimanesh A.;Fagbamigbe A. F.;Fakhradiyev I. R.;Farahmand F.;Sa Farinha C. S. E.;Faro A.;Farzadfar F.;Fatehizadeh A.;Fauk N. K.;Feigin V. L.;Feldman R.;Feng X.;Fentaw Z.;Ferrero S.;Ferro Desideri L.;Filip I.;Fischer F.;Francis J. M.;Franklin R. C.;Gaal P. A.;Gad M. M.;Gallus S.;Galvano F.;Ganesan B.;Garg T.;Gebrehiwot M. G. D.;Gebremeskel T. G.;Gebremichael M. A.;Gemechu T. R.;Getacher L.;Getachew M. E.;Getachew Obsa A.;Getie A.;Ghaderi A.;Ghafourifard M.;Ghajar A.;Ghamari S. -H.;Ghandour L. A.;Ghasemi Nour M.;Ghashghaee A.;Ghozy S.;Glozah F. N.;Glushkova E. V.;Godos J.;Goel A.;Goharinezhad S.;Golechha M.;Goleij P.;Golitaleb M.;Greaves F.;Grivna M.;Grosso G.;Gudayu T. W.;Gupta B.;Gupta R.;Gupta S.;Gupta V. B.;Gupta V. K.;Hafezi-Nejad N.;Haj-Mirzaian A.;Hall B. J.;Halwani R.;Handiso T. B.;Hankey G. J.;Hariri S.;Haro J. M.;Hasaballah A. I.;Hassanian-Moghaddam H.;Hay S. I.;Hayat K.;Heidari G.;Heidari M.;Hendrie D.;Herteliu C.;Heyi D. Z.;Hezam K.;Hlongwa M. M.;Holla R.;Hossain Md. M.;Hossain S.;Hosseini S. K.;Hosseinzadeh M.;Hostiuc M.;Hostiuc S.;Hu G.;Huang J.;Hussain S.;Ibitoye S. E.;Ilic I. M.;Ilic M. D.;Immurana M.;Irham L. M.;Islam M. M.;Islam R. M.;Islam S. M. S.;Iso H.;Itumalla R.;Iwagami M.;Jabbarinejad R.;Jacob L.;Jakovljevic M.;Jamalpoor Z.;Jamshidi E.;Jayapal S. K.;Jayarajah U. U.;Jayawardena R.;Jebai R.;Jeddi S. A.;Jema A. T.;Jha R. P.;Jindal H. A.;Jonas J. B.;Joo T.;Joseph N.;Joukar F.;Jozwiak J. J.;Jurisson M.;Kabir A.;Kabthymer R. H.;Kamble B. D.;Kandel H.;Kanno G. G.;Kapoor N.;Karaye I. M.;Karimi S. E.;Kassa B. G.;Kaur R. J.;Kayode G. A.;Keykhaei M.;Khajuria H.;Khalilov R.;Khan I. A.;Khan M. A. B.;Kim H.;Kim J.;Kim M. S.;Kimokoti R. W.;Kivimaki M.;Klymchuk V.;Knudsen A. K. S.;Kolahi A. -S.;Korshunov V. A.;Koyanagi A.;Krishan K.;Krishnamoorthy Y.;Kumar G. A.;Kumar N.;Kumar N.;Lacey B.;Lallukka T.;Lasrado S.;Lau J.;Lee S. -W.;Lee W. -C.;Lee Y. H.;Lim L. -L.;Lim S. S.;Lobo S. W.;Lopukhov P. D.;Lorkowski S.;Lozano R.;Lucchetti G.;Madadizadeh F.;Madureira-Carvalho A. M.;Mahjoub S.;Mahmoodpoor A.;Mahumud R. A.;Makki A.;Malekpour M. -R.;Manjunatha N.;Mansouri B.;Mansournia M. A.;Martinez-Raga J.;Martinez-Villa F. A.;Matzopoulos R.;Maulik P. K.;Mayeli M.;McGrath J. J.;Meena J. K.;Mehrabi Nasab E.;Menezes R. G.;Mensink G. B. M.;Mentis A. -F. A.;Meretoja A.;Merga B. T.;Mestrovic T.;Miao Jonasson J.;Miazgowski B.;Micheletti Gomide Nogueira De Sa A. C.;Miller T. R.;Mini G. K.;Mirica A.;Mirijello A.;Mirmoeeni S.;Mirrakhimov E. M.;Misra S.;Moazen B.;Mobarakabadi M.;Moccia M.;Mohammad Y.;Mohammadi E.;Mohammadian-Hafshejani A.;Mohammed T. A.;Moka N.;Mokdad A. H.;Momtazmanesh S.;Moradi Y.;Mostafavi E.;Mubarik S.;Mullany E. C.;Mulugeta B. T.;Murillo-Zamora E.;Murray C. J. L.;Mwita J. C.;Naghavi M.;Naimzada M. D.;Nangia V.;Nayak B. P.;Negoi I.;Negoi R. I.;Nejadghaderi S. A.;Nepal S.;Neupane S. P. P.;Neupane Kandel S.;Nigatu Y. T.;Nowroozi A.;Nuruzzaman K. M.;Nzoputam C. I.;Obamiro K. O.;Ogbo F. A.;Oguntade A. S.;Okati-Aliabad H.;Olakunde B. O.;Oliveira G. M. M.;Bali A. O.;Omer E.;Ortega-Altamirano D. V.;Otoiu A.;Otstavnov S. S.;Oumer B.;Mahesh P. A.;Padron-Monedero A.;Palladino R.;Pana A.;Panda-Jonas S.;Pandey A.;Pandey A.;Pardhan S.;Parekh T.;Park E. -K.;Parry C. D. H.;Pashazadeh Kan F.;Patel J.;Pati S.;Patton G. C.;Paudel U.;Pawar S.;Peden A. E.;Petcu I. -R.;Phillips M. R.;Pinheiro M.;Plotnikov E.;Pradhan P. M. S.;Prashant A.;Quan J.;Radfar A.;Rafiei A.;Raghav P. R.;Rahimi-Movaghar V.;Rahman A.;Rahman Md. M.;Rahman M.;Rahmani A. M.;Rahmani S.;Ranabhat C. L.;Ranasinghe P.;Rao C. R.;Rasali D. P.;Rashidi M. -M.;Ratan Z. A.;Rawaf D. L.;Rawaf S.;Rawal L.;Renzaho A. M. N.;Rezaei N.;Rezaei S.;Rezaeian M.;Riahi S. M.;Romero-Rodriguez E.;Roth G. A.;Rwegerera G. M.;Saddik B.;Sadeghi E.;Sadeghian R.;Saeed U.;Saeedi F.;Sagar R.;Sahebkar A.;Sahoo H.;Sahraian M. A.;Saif-Ur-Rahman K. M.;Salahi S.;Salimzadeh H.;Samy A. M.;Sanmarchi F.;Santric-Milicevic M. M.;Sarikhani Y.;Sathian B.;Saya G. K.;Sayyah M.;Schmidt M. I.;Schutte A. E.;Schwarzinger M.;Schwebel D. C.;Seidu A. -A.;Senthil Kumar N.;SeyedAlinaghi S.;Seylani A.;Sha F.;Shahin S.;Shahraki-Sanavi F.;Shahrokhi S.;Shaikh M. A.;Shaker E.;Shakhmardanov M. Z.;Shams-Beyranvand M.;Sheikhbahaei S.;Sheikhi R. A.;Shetty A.;Shetty J. K.;Shiferaw D. S.;Shigematsu M.;Shiri R.;Shirkoohi R.;Shivakumar K. M.;Shivarov V.;Shobeiri P.;Shrestha R.;Sidemo N. B.;Sigfusdottir I. D.;Silva D. A. S.;da Silva N. T.;Singh J. A.;Singh S.;Skryabin V. Y.;Skryabina A. A.;Sleet D. A.;Solmi M.;Solomon Y.;Song S.;Song Y.;Sorensen R. J. D.;Soshnikov S.;Soyiri I. N.;Stein D. J.;Subba S. H.;Szocska M.;Tabares-Seisdedos R.;Tabuchi T.;Taheri M.;Tan K. -K.;Tareke M.;Tarkang E. E.;Temesgen G.;Temesgen W. A.;Temsah M. -H.;Thankappan K. R.;Thapar R.;Thomas N. K.;Tiruneh C.;Todorovic J.;Torrado M.;Touvier M.;Tovani-Palone M. R.;Tran M. T. N.;Trias-Llimos S.;Tripathy J. P.;Vakilian A.;Valizadeh R.;Varmaghani M.;Varthya S. B.;Vasankari T. J.;Vos T.;Wagaye B.;Waheed Y.;Walde M. T.;Wang C.;Wang Y.;Wang Y. -P.;Westerman R.;Wickramasinghe N. D.;Wubetu A. D.;Xu S.;Yamagishi K.;Yang L.;Yesera G. E. E.;Yigit A.;Yigit V.;Yimaw A. E.;Yon D. K.;Yonemoto N.;Yu C.;Zadey S.;Zahir M.;Zare I.;Zastrozhin M. S.;Zastrozhina A.;Zhang Z. -Z.;Zhong C.;Zmaili M.;Zuniga Y. M. H.;Gakidou E.
2022-01-01
Abstract
Background: The health risks associated with moderate alcohol consumption continue to be debated. Small amounts of alcohol might lower the risk of some health outcomes but increase the risk of others, suggesting that the overall risk depends, in part, on background disease rates, which vary by region, age, sex, and year. Methods: For this analysis, we constructed burden-weighted dose–response relative risk curves across 22 health outcomes to estimate the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL) and non-drinker equivalence (NDE), the consumption level at which the health risk is equivalent to that of a non-drinker, using disease rates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2020 for 21 regions, including 204 countries and territories, by 5-year age group, sex, and year for individuals aged 15–95 years and older from 1990 to 2020. Based on the NDE, we quantified the population consuming harmful amounts of alcohol. Findings: The burden-weighted relative risk curves for alcohol use varied by region and age. Among individuals aged 15–39 years in 2020, the TMREL varied between 0 (95% uncertainty interval 0–0) and 0·603 (0·400–1·00) standard drinks per day, and the NDE varied between 0·002 (0–0) and 1·75 (0·698–4·30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals aged 40 years and older, the burden-weighted relative risk curve was J-shaped for all regions, with a 2020 TMREL that ranged from 0·114 (0–0·403) to 1·87 (0·500–3·30) standard drinks per day and an NDE that ranged between 0·193 (0–0·900) and 6·94 (3·40–8·30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals consuming harmful amounts of alcohol in 2020, 59·1% (54·3–65·4) were aged 15–39 years and 76·9% (73·0–81·3) were male. Interpretation: There is strong evidence to support recommendations on alcohol consumption varying by age and location. Stronger interventions, particularly those tailored towards younger individuals, are needed to reduce the substantial global health loss attributable to alcohol. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Bryazka, D.; Reitsma, M. B.; Griswold, M. G.; Abate, K. H.; Abbafati, C.; Abbasi-Kangevari, M.; Abbasi-Kangevari, Z.; Abdoli, A.; Abdollahi, M.; Abdul...espandi
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/11383/2191712
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simulazione ASN
Il report seguente simula gli indicatori relativi alla propria produzione scientifica in relazione alle soglie ASN 2023-2025 del proprio SC/SSD. Si ricorda che il superamento dei valori soglia (almeno 2 su 3) è requisito necessario ma non sufficiente al conseguimento dell'abilitazione. La simulazione si basa sui dati IRIS e sugli indicatori bibliometrici alla data indicata e non tiene conto di eventuali periodi di congedo obbligatorio, che in sede di domanda ASN danno diritto a incrementi percentuali dei valori. La simulazione può differire dall'esito di un’eventuale domanda ASN sia per errori di catalogazione e/o dati mancanti in IRIS, sia per la variabilità dei dati bibliometrici nel tempo. Si consideri che Anvur calcola i valori degli indicatori all'ultima data utile per la presentazione delle domande.
La presente simulazione è stata realizzata sulla base delle specifiche raccolte sul tavolo ER del Focus Group IRIS coordinato dall’Università di Modena e Reggio Emilia e delle regole riportate nel DM 589/2018 e allegata Tabella A. Cineca, l’Università di Modena e Reggio Emilia e il Focus Group IRIS non si assumono alcuna responsabilità in merito all’uso che il diretto interessato o terzi faranno della simulazione. Si specifica inoltre che la simulazione contiene calcoli effettuati con dati e algoritmi di pubblico dominio e deve quindi essere considerata come un mero ausilio al calcolo svolgibile manualmente o con strumenti equivalenti.
