Framing Allais: Is the Paradox Robust to the Pictorial Framing of Probabilities?

The Allais paradox refers to a choice problem in which individuals face two pairs of lotteries, A–B and C–D, and typically prefer A to B and D to C, a choice pattern that violates Expected Utility theory. Prior theoretical and experimental work suggests that the AD pattern is driven by probability weighting and that framing the probabilities of lottery outcomes pictorially may reduce such weighting and, consequently, the incidence of the AD pattern. We test this hypothesis in an online experiment (N=595) with three treatments. In Baseline, probabilities are presented numerically as fractions. The two pictorial treatments are Pie, where probabilities are displayed using pie charts, and Grid, which represents probabilities through a grid of colored balls. Contrary to our expectations, we find that the frequency of the AD pattern is virtually identical across the three treatments, indicating that the Allais paradox is robust to the pictorial framing of probabilities. We conclude by discussing possible rationalizations and implications of our findings.